Calibration & Resolution Tracker
Analyzing prediction market accuracy and tracking resolution patterns across Polymarket and Kalshi. As markets resolve, this page will reveal how well-calibrated each platform truly is.
What is Calibration?
Understanding prediction market accuracy
Calibration measures whether prediction market prices accurately reflect real probabilities. A well-calibrated market means that when markets are priced at 70%, the event actually happens about 70% of the time.
If markets priced at 70% resolve YES 70% of the time, the market is perfectly calibrated. If they resolve YES only 50% of the time, the market systematically overestimates these events.
Points on this line = perfect calibration
Simulated Calibration Curve
SimulatedPreview of how calibration tracking will work once markets resolve
Market Probability Distribution
Live DataHow many markets are priced in each probability bucket -- shows overall market uncertainty
Conviction Analysis
Live DataHow confident are the markets about their predictions?
Platform Calibration Readiness
Statistics per platform -- calibration comparison will be available after markets resolve
Overround / Vig Analysis
Live DataDoes YES + NO sum to $1.00? Deviation reveals the house edge or mispricing.
Category Conviction Heatmap
Live DataWhich categories have the most decided vs. uncertain markets?
Resolution Timeline Forecast
When will calibration data become available? Projected based on market close dates.
Brier Score
Coming SoonThe gold standard for measuring probabilistic prediction accuracy
The Brier Score measures the accuracy of probabilistic predictions. It is the mean squared difference between predicted probabilities and actual outcomes.
Awaiting Resolutions
Brier Scores will be computed once markets begin resolving.
Data Quality Report
Assessing data completeness and reliability for accurate calibration analysis